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TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2012 - 2015

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TomiAhonen Consulting has released a forecast into the next few years of the mobile industry. The TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2012-2015 follows the format and style of the highly popular TomiAhonen Almanac series of annual statistical reviews.


The TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2012-2015 is only available in ebook format. It runs 85 pages with 110 data points. Each data point is examined in the context of the past 3 year recent history from 2009 to 2011, and adding forecasts for the years 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. Each forecasted item is also discussed briefly so the reader can understand the context and assumtions relating to that forecasted item.


For the most volatile part of the industry, smartphone market share developments, a Base Case and 5 Scenarios are offered, allowing the reader to consider alternate near future possibilities whether Blackberry achieves a comeback, Apple splits its iPhone range, Windows 8 provides a recovery for Microsoft and Nokia, etc.


The TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2012-2015 has 53 Charts/graphs and 50 tables covering the 110 data points across the 7 years of the period.




Intro (4 pages)

(no charts, no tables)

Size of Industry (8 pages)

3 charts

7 tables

Customers (7 pages)

1 chart

10 tables

Handsets Overall (10 pages)

6 charts

8 tables

Handset Market Shares (25 pages)

24 charts

1 table

Mobile Data Services (18 pages)

15 charts

15 tables

Smartphone Apps (2 pages)

1 chart

1 table

Customer Types (5 pages)

3 charts

3 tables

Annual Statistical Summaries (5 pages)

4 tables

About the Author






All of the following data will have seven numerical data points for years 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, except where separately mentioned (in the smartphone market shares chapter, there are several forecasts with only a graphic, or giving the end-status of the market share only for the year 2015). Each data point will thus have four forecasted data points for the years 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (except where separately mentioned)



- Mobile subscriptions

- Unique subscribers

- Second and Third subscriptions in use

- Handsets ('terminals') in use actual

- Mobile industry revenues

- Operator revenues

- Operator revenues: voice

- Operator revenues: messaging

- Operator revenues: VAS (non-messaging data) services

- Hardware revenues



- Penetration rate per capita

- Penetration rate as unique users as percent of all humans

- Penetration rate as percent of all unique users above 10 years old

- North America: Total mobile subscriptions

- North America: Unique mobile owners

- North America: Multiple subscribers

- Western Europe: Total mobile subscriptions

- Western Europe: Unique mobile owners

- Western Europe: Multiple subscribers

- Eastern Europe: Total mobile subscriptions

- Eastern Europe: Unique mobile owners

- Eastern Europe: Multiple subscribers

- Asia-Pacific Advanced: Total mobile subscriptions

- Asia-Pacific Advanced: Unique mobile owners

- Asia-Pacific Advanced: Multiple subscribers

- Asia Developing: Total mobile subscriptions

- Asia Developing: Unique mobile owners

- Asia Developing: Multiple subscribers

- Middle East: Total mobile subscriptions

- Middle East: Unique mobile owners

- Middle East: Multiple subscribers

- Africa: Total mobile subscriptions

- Africa: Unique mobile owners

- Africa: Multiple subscribers

- Latin America: Total mobile subscriptions

- Latin America: Unique mobile owners

- Latin America: Multiple subscribers

- Active base users: Clock and Alarm

- Active base users: Camera

- Active base users: SMS

- Active base users: Receive advertising

- Active base users: Voice calls

- Active base users: Web surfing (including WAP)

- Active base users: Music including ringing tones

- Active base users: MMS

- Active base users: TV voting

- Active base users: News and Alerts

- Active base users: Search

- Active base users: Downloading



- New handset sales in units

- New smartphone sales in units

- Smartphone migration of new phone sales as percent

- Smartphones in use

- Smartphone migration rate in percent

- Installed base: MMS capability

- Installed base: Bluetooth

- Installed base: Media player

- Installed base: Camera

- Installed base: Memory card slot

- Installed base: HTML compatible browser (not including WAP)

- Installed base: 3G ability

- Installed base: Java/Brew capability

- Installed base: WiFi capability

- Installed base: used handsets

- Installed base: touch screen

- Average camera resulution (of main camera, of cameraphones)

- Input method Touch Screen

- Input method QWERTY

- Input method hybrid

- Input method basic



- New Handset market shares (graphic only)

- Dumbphone market shares (graphic only)

- Smartphone manufacturer market shares (graphic only)

- Smartphone OS Forecast Base Case (graphic only)

- Year 2015 Base Case (graphic only)

- Scenario 1 Samsung Surge (graphic only)

- Year 2015 Scenario 1 Samsung Surge (graphic only)

- Scenario 2 Apple Surge (graphic only)

- Year 2015 Scenario 2 Apple Surge (graphic only)

- Scenario 3 Blackberry Recover (graphic only)

- Year 2015 Scenario 3 Blackberry Recovery (graphic only)

- Scenario 4 Windows Success (graphic only)

- Year 2015 Scenario 4 Windows Success (graphic only)

- Scenario 5 Nokia Return with Meltemi (graphic only)

- Year 2015 Scenario 5 Nokia Best Case (graphic only)

- Year 2015 Scenarios Base Case per OS

- Year 2015 Scenarios Best Cases per OS

- Year 2015 Scenarios Worst Cases per OS

- Year 2015 Scenarios Average market shares per OS

- North America OS market share (graphic only)

- Western Europe OS market share (graphic only)

- Advanced Asia-Pacific region OS market share (graphic only)

- Emerging Asia region OS market share (graphic only)

- Middle East OS market share (graphic only)

- Africa OS market share (graphic only)

- Eastern Europe OS market share (graphic only)

- Latin America OS market share (graphic only)



- SMS users

- SMS users as percent of all subscribers

- SMS messaging traffic

- SMS text messaging revenues

- OTT Cannibalization of messaging

- MMS users

- MMS revenues

- Mobile VAS (non-messaging premium data) users

- Mobile VAS (non-messaging premium data) revenues

- Mobile users of internet

- PC users of internet

- Mobile only users of internet

- PC only users of internet

- Both Mobile & PC internet users

- Mobile TV, video revenues

- Mobile social networking revenues

- Mobile news and alerts revenues

- Mobile music revenues

- Mobile advertising revenues



- Consumer app revenues

- Business app revenues



- Consumer subscriptions

- Enterprise subscriptions

- Business smartphones

- Consumer smartphones

- Prepaid customers

- Postpaid customers





Tomi T Ahonen has been a thought-leader to the mobile forecasting and statistics industry for over 15 years, chairing its major forecasting conferences and offering his forecasts and insights. Tomi is considered the most accurate forecaster of the mobile industry and is quoted regularly in major press from the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times on to specialist telecoms press. Tomi Ahonen was the first industry expert to forecast that mobile subscriptions would pass fixed landlines, that mobile penetration rates would exceed human populations, that it would become commonplace for mass market consumers to have two or more mobile subscriptions, that mobile consumers would be happy to carry two phones, that SMS text messaging would grow to become the biggest data service on the planet, etc.


Tomi keeps offering updates and forecasts to the industry and even very recently, has provided guidance to the industry such as being the most accurate forecaster to predict last February that Nokia's smartphone market share would collapse to single digits by year end. Tomi's February forecast for end-of-year Q4 market share for Nokia smartphones at 8% (it ended up being 8.6%). No other industry expert was quoted with a market share target for Nokia into the single digits, many felt Nokia's smartphone market share would fall from the 29% it had been, to about 20%. Similarly Tomi Ahonen has been the most accurate forecaster of the market performance of the iPhone, of touch-screen phones, and was the world's first forecaster to accurately call it in mid 2011, that Samsung would pass Nokia in total handset sales in the spring of 2012.


Tomi T Ahonen was rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in January 2012. Tomi is the most published author in mobile. The bestselling author of twelve mobile telecoms books several of which have gone into reprints and translated to several languages, Tomi is already referenced in books by over 120 other authors and considered the foremost industry expert on the statistics for the industry. The former Nokia executive lectures at Oxford University's short courses on the future of mobile telecoms, is often seen on TV and has been quoted in the press over 300 times in publications such as Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Financial Times, the Economist, etc., as well as countless telecoms industry periodicals. Here is the link to his full biography.



Use the link below to order the TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2012-2015.


This is the only location where you can order the eBook.






The Mobile Forecast will also available for a multi-user corporate/international license at 250 Euros. Please write to for more information on enterprise and corporate licenses.




Right now there is no automated delivery of the pdf file. You will need to first make payment via Paypal here, where you can use your credit card or Paypal account to pay. After you have paid, you have to send an email to, with the following information as below, to request the download.


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Indicate in the email header "Paid for Forecast" and send that information as email to


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To see Tomi's other eleven books including his six hardcover bestsellers and his new eBooks Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising, or Pearls Vol 2, Mobile Social Networking or Pearls Vol 3: Mobile Money follow this link: Tomi Books.

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