This is the information and ordering page for the new report
TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2012 - 2015
This is the only place where you can order
the eBook
TomiAhonen
Consulting has released a forecast into the next few years of the mobile
industry. The TomiAhonen
Mobile Forecast 2012-2015 follows the format and style of the
highly popular TomiAhonen Almanac series of annual statistical reviews.
The TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2012-2015
is only available in ebook format. It runs 85 pages with 110 data points. Each
data point is examined in the context of the past 3 year recent history from 2009
to 2011, and adding forecasts for the years 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015. Each
forecasted item is also discussed briefly so the reader can understand the
context and assumtions relating to that forecasted item.
For the
most volatile part of the industry, smartphone market share developments, a
Base Case and 5 Scenarios are offered, allowing the reader to consider
alternate near future possibilities whether Blackberry achieves a comeback,
Apple splits its iPhone range, Windows 8 provides a recovery for Microsoft and
Nokia, etc.
The TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast
2012-2015 has 53 Charts/graphs and 50 tables covering the 110
data points across the 7 years of the period.
TOMIAHONEN
MOBILE FORECAST TABLE OF CONTENTS
Intro (4
pages)
(no charts, no tables)
Size of
Industry (8 pages)
3 charts
7 tables
Customers (7
pages)
1 chart
10 tables
Handsets
Overall (10 pages)
6 charts
8 tables
Handset
Market Shares (25 pages)
24 charts
1 table
Mobile Data
Services (18 pages)
15 charts
15 tables
Smartphone
Apps (2 pages)
1 chart
1 table
Customer
Types (5 pages)
3 charts
3 tables
Annual
Statistical Summaries (5 pages)
4 tables
About the Author
DATA
FORECASTED IN REPORT:
All of the
following data will have seven numerical data points for years 2009, 2010, 2011,
2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, except where separately mentioned (in the smartphone
market shares chapter, there are several forecasts with only a graphic, or
giving the end-status of the market share only for the year 2015). Each data
point will thus have four forecasted data points for the years 2012, 2013, 2014
and 2015 (except where separately mentioned)
CHAPTER 2 -
SIZE OF THE INDUSTRY
- Mobile subscriptions
- Unique subscribers
- Second and Third subscriptions in use
- Handsets ('terminals') in use actual
- Mobile industry revenues
- Operator revenues
- Operator revenues: voice
- Operator revenues: messaging
- Operator revenues: VAS (non-messaging data) services
- Hardware revenues
CHAPTER 3 -
CUSTOMERS
- Penetration rate per capita
- Penetration rate as unique users as percent
of all humans
- Penetration rate as percent of all unique
users above 10 years old
- North America: Total mobile subscriptions
- North America: Unique mobile owners
- North America: Multiple subscribers
- Western Europe: Total mobile subscriptions
- Western Europe: Unique mobile owners
- Western Europe: Multiple subscribers
- Eastern Europe: Total mobile subscriptions
- Eastern Europe: Unique mobile owners
- Eastern Europe: Multiple subscribers
- Asia-Pacific Advanced: Total mobile
subscriptions
- Asia-Pacific Advanced: Unique mobile owners
- Asia-Pacific Advanced: Multiple subscribers
- Asia Developing: Total mobile subscriptions
- Asia Developing: Unique mobile owners
- Asia Developing: Multiple subscribers
- Middle East: Total mobile subscriptions
- Middle East: Unique mobile owners
- Middle East: Multiple subscribers
- Africa: Total mobile subscriptions
- Africa: Unique mobile owners
- Africa: Multiple subscribers
- Latin America: Total mobile subscriptions
- Latin America: Unique mobile owners
- Latin America: Multiple subscribers
- Active base users: Clock and Alarm
- Active base users: Camera
- Active base users: SMS
- Active base users: Receive advertising
- Active base users: Voice calls
- Active base users: Web surfing (including
WAP)
- Active base users: Music including ringing
tones
- Active base users: MMS
- Active base users: TV voting
- Active base users: News and Alerts
- Active base users: Search
- Active base users: Downloading
CHAPTER 4 -
HANDSETS OVERALL
- New handset sales in units
- New smartphone sales in units
- Smartphone migration of new phone sales as
percent
- Smartphones in use
- Smartphone migration rate in percent
- Installed base: MMS capability
- Installed base: Bluetooth
- Installed base: Media player
- Installed base: Camera
- Installed base: Memory card slot
- Installed base: HTML compatible browser (not
including WAP)
- Installed base: 3G ability
- Installed base: Java/Brew capability
- Installed base: WiFi capability
- Installed base: used handsets
- Installed base: touch screen
- Average camera resulution (of main camera,
of cameraphones)
- Input method Touch Screen
- Input method QWERTY
- Input method hybrid
- Input method basic
CHAPTER 5 -
HANDSET MARKET SHARES
- New Handset market shares (graphic only)
- Dumbphone market shares (graphic only)
- Smartphone manufacturer market shares (graphic
only)
- Smartphone OS Forecast Base Case (graphic
only)
- Year 2015 Base Case (graphic only)
- Scenario 1 Samsung Surge (graphic only)
- Year 2015 Scenario 1 Samsung Surge (graphic
only)
- Scenario 2 Apple Surge (graphic only)
- Year 2015 Scenario 2 Apple Surge (graphic
only)
- Scenario 3 Blackberry Recover (graphic only)
- Year 2015 Scenario 3 Blackberry Recovery (graphic
only)
- Scenario 4 Windows Success (graphic only)
- Year 2015 Scenario 4 Windows Success (graphic
only)
- Scenario 5 Nokia Return with Meltemi (graphic
only)
- Year 2015 Scenario 5 Nokia Best Case (graphic
only)
- Year 2015 Scenarios Base Case per OS
- Year 2015 Scenarios Best Cases per OS
- Year 2015 Scenarios Worst Cases per OS
- Year 2015 Scenarios Average market shares
per OS
- North America OS market share (graphic only)
- Western Europe OS market share (graphic only)
- Advanced Asia-Pacific region OS market share
(graphic only)
- Emerging Asia region OS market share (graphic
only)
- Middle East OS market share (graphic only)
- Africa OS market share (graphic only)
- Eastern Europe OS market share (graphic only)
- Latin America OS market share (graphic only)
CHAPTER 6 -
MOBILE DATA SERVICES
- SMS users
- SMS users as percent of all subscribers
- SMS messaging traffic
- SMS text messaging revenues
- OTT Cannibalization of messaging
- MMS users
- MMS revenues
- Mobile VAS (non-messaging premium data) users
- Mobile VAS (non-messaging premium data) revenues
- Mobile users of internet
- PC users of internet
- Mobile only users of internet
- PC only users of internet
- Both Mobile & PC internet users
- Mobile TV, video revenues
- Mobile social networking revenues
- Mobile news and alerts revenues
- Mobile music revenues
- Mobile advertising revenues
CHAPTER 7 -
SMARTPHONE APPS
- Consumer app revenues
- Business app revenues
CHAPTER 8 -
CUSTOMER TYPE
- Consumer subscriptions
- Enterprise subscriptions
- Business smartphones
- Consumer smartphones
- Prepaid customers
- Postpaid customers
TOMI IN FORECASTING
Tomi T
Ahonen has been a thought-leader to the mobile forecasting and statistics
industry for over 15 years, chairing its major forecasting conferences and
offering his forecasts and insights. Tomi is considered the most accurate
forecaster of the mobile industry and is quoted regularly in major press from
the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times on to specialist telecoms press. Tomi
Ahonen was the first industry expert to forecast that mobile subscriptions
would pass fixed landlines, that mobile penetration rates would exceed human
populations, that it would become commonplace for mass market consumers to have
two or more mobile subscriptions, that mobile consumers would be happy to carry
two phones, that SMS text messaging would grow to become the biggest data
service on the planet, etc.
Tomi keeps
offering updates and forecasts to the industry and even very recently, has
provided guidance to the industry such as being the most accurate forecaster to
predict last February that Nokia's smartphone market share would collapse to
single digits by year end. Tomi's February forecast for end-of-year Q4 market
share for Nokia smartphones at 8% (it ended up being 8.6%). No other industry
expert was quoted with a market share target for Nokia into the single digits,
many felt Nokia's smartphone market share would fall from the 29% it had been,
to about 20%. Similarly Tomi Ahonen has been the most accurate forecaster of
the market performance of the iPhone, of touch-screen phones, and was the
world's first forecaster to accurately call it in mid 2011, that Samsung would
pass Nokia in total handset sales in the spring of 2012.
Tomi T
Ahonen was rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in January 2012. Tomi is the most
published author in mobile. The bestselling author of twelve mobile telecoms
books several of which have gone into reprints and translated to several
languages, Tomi is already referenced in books by over 120 other authors and
considered the foremost industry expert on the statistics for the industry. The
former Nokia executive lectures at Oxford University's short courses on the
future of mobile telecoms, is often seen on TV and has been quoted in the press
over 300 times in publications such as Wall
Street Journal, Business Week, Financial Times, the Economist, etc.,
as well as countless telecoms industry periodicals. Here is the link to his
full biography.
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Mobile Forecast 2012-2015.
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