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TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2014 - 2018

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TomiAhonen Consulting has released a forecast into the next few years of the mobile industry. The TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2014-2018 follows the format and style of the highly popular TomiAhonen Almanac series of annual statistical reviews.


The TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2014-2018 is only available in ebook format. It runs 101 pages with 109 forecasts and a total of 420 data points. Each forecasted item is examined in the context of the past 3 year recent history from 2011 to 2013, and adding forecasts for the years 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. Each forecasted item is also discussed briefly so the reader can understand the context and assumtions relating to that forecasted item.


For the most volatile part of the industry, smartphone market share developments, a Base Case and 5 Scenarios are offered, allowing the reader to consider alternate near future possibilities whether Samsung’s Tizen perhaps takes off strongly or if Samsung shuts it down. Also considered are if Apple splits its products to include cheaper ‘mass market’ offerings, or if Blackberry achieves a comeback, or if Windows finally recovers on smartphones.


The TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2014-2018 has 55 Charts/graphs (previous Forecast had 53) and 48 tables (previously 50) covering the 109 data points (previously 110) across the 8 years of the period (previously 7). Compared to the previous edition, the dumbphones-only forecast part is removed as essentially no longer significant through this forecast period. In its stead several parts were expanded, in particular more data on OTT messaging. Also the handsets and smartphones chapters have more detail.




Intro (4 pages)

            (no charts, no tables)

Size of Industry (10 pages)

            4 charts

            7 tables

Customers (8 pages)

            1 chart

            10 tables

Handsets Overall (10 pages)

            9 charts

            9 tables

Handset Market Shares (24 pages)

            18 charts

            1 table

Mobile Data Services (25 pages)

            18 charts

            17 tables

Smartphone Apps (3 pages)

            2 chart

            1 table

Customer Types (5 pages)

            3 charts

            3 tables

Annual Statistical Summaries (5 pages)

            4 tables

About the Author






All of the following data will have eight numerical data points for years 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 except where separately mentioned (in the smartphone market shares chapter, there are several forecasts with only a graphic, or giving the end-status of the market share only for the year 2018). Each forecasted item will thus have four forecasted data points for the years 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 (except where separately mentioned)



 - Mobile subscriptions

 - Unique subscribers

 - Second and Third subscriptions in use

 - Mobile phones in use

 - Mobile industry revenues

 - Mobile service revenues by type

 - Service revenues: voice

 - Service revenues: messaging

 - Service revenues: VAS (non-messaging data) services

 - Hardware revenues



 - Penetration rate per capita

 - Penetration rate as unique users as percent of all humans

 - Penetration rate as percent of all unique users above 10 years old

 - North America: Total mobile subscriptions

 - North America: Unique mobile owners

 - North America: Multiple subscribers

 - Western Europe: Total mobile subscriptions

 - Western Europe: Unique mobile owners

 - Western Europe: Multiple subscribers

 - Eastern Europe: Total mobile subscriptions

 - Eastern Europe: Unique mobile owners

 - Eastern Europe: Multiple subscribers

 - Asia-Pacific Advanced: Total mobile subscriptions

 - Asia-Pacific Advanced: Unique mobile owners

 - Asia-Pacific Advanced: Multiple subscribers

 - Asia Developing: Total mobile subscriptions

 - Asia Developing: Unique mobile owners

 - Asia Developing: Multiple subscribers

 - Middle East: Total mobile subscriptions

 - Middle East: Unique mobile owners

 - Middle East: Multiple subscribers

 - Africa: Total mobile subscriptions

 - Africa: Unique mobile owners

 - Africa: Multiple subscribers

 - Latin America: Total mobile subscriptions

 - Latin America: Unique mobile owners

 - Latin America: Multiple subscribers

 - Active base users: Clock and Alarm

 - Active base users: Receive advertising

 - Active base users: Camera

 - Active base users: SMS

 - Active base users: Voice calls

 - Active base users: Internet use

 - Active base users: Music including ringing tones

 - Active base users: News and Alerts

 - Active base users: Search

 - Active base users: TV voting

 - Active base users: Downloading

 - Active base users: MMS



 - New handset sales in units

 - New smartphone sales in units

 - Smartphone migration of new phone sales as percent

 - Average sales price all mobile phones

 - Average sales price smartphones

 - Average sales price dumbphones

 - Smartphones in use

 - Smartphone migration rate in percent

 - Installed base: Media player

 - Installed base: Camera

 - Installed base: Bluetooth

 - Installed base: MMS capability

 - Installed base: HTML compatible browser (not including WAP)

 - Installed base: touch screen

 - Installed base: Memory card slot

 - Installed base: Java/Brew capability

 - Installed base: 3G ability

 - Installed base: smartphones

 - Installed base: WiFi capability

 - Installed base: used handsets

 - Average camera resulution (of main camera, of cameraphones)

 - Input method Touch Screen

 - Input method QWERTY

 - Input method hybrid

 - Input method basic



 - New Handset market shares (graphic only)

 - Smartphone manufacturer market shares (graphic only)

 - Smartphone OS Forecast Base Case (graphic only)

 - Year 2018 Base Case (graphic only)

 - Scenario 1 Tizen Fails (graphic only)

 - Scenario 2 Apple Surge (graphic only)

 - Scenario 3 Tizen Surge (graphic only)

 - Scenario 4 Blackberry Recover (graphic only)

 - Scenario 4 Windows Success (graphic only)

 - Year 2018 Scenarios Base Case per OS

 - Year 2018 Scenarios Best Case per OS

 - Year 2018 Scenarios Worst Case per OS

 - Year 2018 Scenarios Average market shares per OS

 - North America OS market share (graphic only)

 - Western Europe OS market share (graphic only)

 - Advanced Asia-Pacific region OS market share (graphic only)

 - Emerging Asia region OS market share (graphic only)

 - Middle East OS market share (graphic only)

 - Africa OS market share (graphic only)

 - Eastern Europe OS market share (graphic only)

 - Latin America OS market share (graphic only)



 - SMS users

 - SMS users as percent of all subscribers

 - SMS messaging traffic

 - SMS text messaging revenues

 - SMS revenues by type: person to person

 - SMS revenues by type: premium SMS

 - OTT messaging as percent of all messaging traffic

 - OTT messaging active users vs SMS active users

 - MMS users

 - MMS revenues

 - Mobile VAS (non-messaging premium data) users

 - Mobile VAS (non-messaging premium data) revenues

 - Mobile users of internet

 - PC users of internet

 - Mobile only users of internet

 - PC only users of internet

 - Both Mobile & PC internet users

 - Mobile TV, video revenues

 - Mobile social networking revenues

 - Mobile news and alerts revenues

 - Mobile gaming revenues

 - Mobile advertising revenues



 - Consumer app revenues

 - Business app revenues

 - Shift in mobile service revenues: SMS, VAS data and apps (graphic only)



 - Consumer subscriptions

 - Enterprise subscriptions

 - Business smartphones

 - Consumer smartphones

 - Prepaid customers

 - Postpaid customers

CHAPTER 9 - ANNUAL SUMMARIES (these repeat data from the above, but provide a snapshot of most relevant data per year)

 - 20 major data points year 2014

 - 20 major data points year 2015

 - 20 major data points year 2016

 - 20 major data points year 2017

 - 20 major data points year 2018





Tomi T Ahonen has been a thought-leader to the mobile forecasting and statistics industry for over 15 years, chairing its major forecasting conferences and offering his forecasts and insights. Tomi is considered the most accurate forecaster of the mobile industry and is quoted regularly in major press from the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times on to specialist telecoms press. Tomi Ahonen was the first industry expert to forecast that mobile subscriptions would pass fixed landlines, that mobile penetration rates would exceed human populations, that it would become commonplace for mass market consumers to have two or more mobile subscriptions, that mobile consumers would be happy to carry two phones, that SMS text messaging would grow to become the biggest data service on the planet, etc.


Tomi keeps offering updates and forecasts to the industry and even very recently, has provided guidance to the industry such as being the most accurate forecaster to predict Nokia’s world-record collapse, the failure of Windows Phone to replace Symbian and the sale of Nokia handset business to Microsoft. Tomi also accurately forecasted that it would be Samsung who would take the global lead in smartphones as Nokia was about to collapse - even as Blackberry and Apple iPhone were twice as big as Samsung at that time. All of these Nokia, Microsoft and Samsung related forecasts were first or most extreme against industry consensus and were again the most accurate in the business. Similarly Tomi Ahonen has been the most accurate forecaster of the market performance of the iPhone, of touch-screen phones, smartphone app store economics, phablets vs tablet PCs etc.


Tomi T Ahonen was rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in January 2012. Tomi is the most published author in mobile. The bestselling author of twelve mobile telecoms books several of which have gone into reprints and translated to several languages, Tomi is already referenced in books by over 140 other authors and considered the foremost industry expert on the statistics for the industry. The former Nokia executive lectures at Oxford University's short courses on the future of mobile telecoms, is often seen on TV and has been quoted in the press over 500 times in publications such as Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Financial Times, the Economist, etc., as well as countless telecoms industry periodicals. Here is the link to his full biography.



Use the link below to order the TomiAhonen Mobile Forecast 2014-2018.


This is the only location where you can order the eBook.






The Mobile Forecast will also available for a multi-user corporate/international license at 250 Euros. Please write to  for more information on enterprise and corporate licenses.




Right now there is no automated delivery of the pdf file. You will need to first make payment via Paypal here, where you can use your credit card or Paypal account to pay. After you have paid, you have to send an email to, with the following information as below, to request the download.


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To see Tomi's other eleven books including his six hardcover bestsellers and his new eBooks Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising, or Pearls Vol 2, Mobile Social Networking or Pearls Vol 3: Mobile Money follow this link: Tomi Books.

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